Text message reminders of state registration deadlines

Thousands of people download voter registration forms every day from Rock the Vote, but they don't necessarily know the voter registration deadline for their state. We're all busy and it can sometimes take people a few days or weeks before they print and mail the registration form. One of the programs we've been testing at Rock the Vote is the use of text messages to remind young people of their registration deadline. Our early evaluation results from the primaries indicate that these SMS reminders boosted registration rates of our registrant list by about 4% points!

In Pennsylvania 68.4% of the treatment group was registered compared to 64.5% of the control group, so the text message reminder increased registration rates there by about 3.9 percentage points. In Indiana the reminder boosted registration by about 4.1% points. When we combine these two tests and add statistical controls we find that the average increase of 4.1% points is statistically significant (i.e. the increased registration is probably not due to random chance).

It appears that text message voter registration reminders can have a big impact on motivating people to send in their registration forms, presumably because voter registration deadlines are not well-known. This result is in line with related research conducted in 2006 which found that text messages were an effective Get Out the Vote (GOTV) tactic - increasing turnout by about 3% points among new registrants.

Want to translate your mobile list into political power? Make sure they're registered to vote and send them a reminder of their state's registration deadline. Then do a GOTV blast on Election Day.

Details on the Methodology: In order to test these reminders we take the list of people who have opted-in to our mobile program (powered by at&t) and randomly assign them to treatment and control groups, similar to a clinical drug trial. We send the text message reminder to the treatment group but not the control group, saying something like "Reminder: [your state]'s registration deadline is March X, so be sure to send in your registration form by then." Afterwards we look on the voter rolls and see if the treatment group is registered at a higher rate than the control group. If so, it means the program worked, but if they have about the same registration rate it may not be worth the cost of sending the text messages.

Double Trouble

For the past couple months, I've posted updates on young voters' primary and caucus turnout and the amazing year we're having.

This morning, I decided to take a look at the big picture. And it turns out that picture is pretty awesome.

So far in 2008, more than twice as many 18-29 year olds have voted in the presidential primaries than did in 2004 or 2000. More than DOUBLE.

To be exact, more than 5.7 million voters under 30 have hit the polls in 2008 - a 2.2 million voter increase, or 109%, over the last primaries. (Want more? Check out our factsheet)

AND - turnout's gone up in every primary and caucus so far - from coast to coast.

AND - turnout's up among all age groups, but it's up far more among young voters. We're leading the charge.

Damn. Watch out. This is going to be quite a year.

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For more info, check out our factsheet or the chart below:

Researching Young Voters Using Census Data

Hi, I'm the new research analyst for Rock the Vote, now on my second month of employment. I thought I would begin my blog activity with a topic we can all appreciate: researching young voters using Census data. For software I prefer to use Stata, but the commands can be translated to SPSS, SAS, or other programs. If you are a college student you should be able to purchase an inexpensive educational version of Stata from your campus software store.

The Census
To briefly review, the Census is conducted on a decennial basis to collect population counts, employment data, etc. What is less well-known is that these data are supplemented with more frequent surveys, such as the American Community Survey (ACS) and the Current Population Survey (CPS). Researchers looking at voting or elections will be most interested in the CPS sample conducted in November of even-numbered years because it includes a variety of questions on the fall elections for that year.

Getting The Data
CPS data can be downloaded directly from the Census website but it requires a lot of work to format and label everything. Luckily the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) does this for us and makes the cleaned data available for Stata, SPSS, and SAS. First, download the data file for the particular month (say, November 2006 [.zip, 14.3mb]) on NBER's CPS Supplements page. Then go over to the data definition files page to download the files for Stata (cpsnov06.do and cpsnov06.dct).

Formatting The Data
Once you have the data you will need to run Stata and edit the cpsnov06.do file (hit ctrl-8 to load the do-file editor), which will format and label all the variables. You may want to tweak the memory command on the second line if you have less memory (I change it from 1000m to 300m), and you will need to check that the file paths are correct for the .dat, .dta, and .dct files: change them to the directory where you saved the files (for example, line 20 for me is local dat_name "C:\data\cpsnov06.dat"). Save your changes and then click the "Do" button to have Stata run the file - it will create a file called cpsnov06.dta with the cleaned data so that you don't have to run the .do file each time.

Analyzing the Data
From there you can look at whatever you like; the election-related questions are at the bottom of the variables list. pes1 is voter turnout, pes2 is voter registration (for those who didn't vote), pes6 is election-day vs. early voting, etc. Look at the technical documentation [pdf, 1.7mb] for the full list of variables. For youth voting research you will generally want to delete observations where the age is outside of the 18-29 range (drop if peage < 18 | peage > 29) and where they are not citizens (drop if prcitshp == 5). This will leave you with 18,110 observations for the November 2006 data.

Examples
Young voter turnout by gender: tab pes1 pesex, column
-> Results: 24.4% for young males, 27.6% for young females.

Young early voting by race: tab ptdtrace pes6 if pes6 > 0, row
-> Results: 15.8% of white youth voted early, compared to 7.4% of black youth and 28.1% of asian youth.

Top reasons for not voting: tab pes4 if pes4 > 0
-> Results: 1) Too busy - 35%, 2) Not interested - 15%, 3) Out of town - 13%, 4) Forgot - 7%.

Weighting
For the most accurate results, you need to weight the analysis to correct for small differences between the CPS sample and the overall US population. In the CPS dataset the variable pwsswgt contains a probability weighting for each observation. To use it run the command "svyset [pweight=pwsswgt]", then prefix your commands with "svy:", such as "svy: tab pes1".

Conclusion
I hope this was clear enough without being too lengthy. If you have any questions or problems feel free to leave a comment or email me at chrisk [at] rockthevote.com. I'd be interested to hear what people are looking at. Finally, check out CIRCLE's research for a variety of youth voting papers and analysis using Census data.