In the 2008 Election, talking heads pontificated and organizations polled voters but one person saw above all that with straight math. His name is Nate Silver and he ran the blog fivethirtyeight.com. Instead of looking at what the chattering class chatted about, Nate looked at historical data, built models and crunched the numbers. In 2008, Nate predicted that even though there was drama on the campaign trail for the Democratic Nomination for president, then-Sen. Obama had and insurmountable delegate count over then-Sen. Clinton and would be the party’s nominee.
And maybe because television has to have drama to have ratings, pundits were calling the presidential race too close to call in the final days. But looking at historical data, Nate was able to say with “85-90 percent” certainty that Obama would win the presidency. On Election Day, Nate Silver predicted with 98.7 percent certainty that Obama would win on Election Day. Turns out math won on Election Day.
Well, Nate is back and this time fivethirtyeight.com is part of The NY Times. Nate’s model and predictions are really worth watching. His math has some big surprises and it’s worth watching to check the temperature of the American electorate.
There are 37 states holding senate elections this cycle. Is yours one of them? Are you in California where, at this point, Nate predicts that Sen. Boxer has a 58 percent chance of holding her seat with a slim 2-point margin of victory? Or are you in Colorado where Nate predicts that there is a 69 percent chance that Sen. Bennet loses his seat by a margin of 3-points? Will these numbers and all the close elections shift as we move into the thick of the political season?
If you want to be in the know and understand this election cycle, fivethirtyeight.com is the place for you.
Tags: fivethirtyeight.com, Nate Silver, NY Times
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Jason Bio: Email the author at: blog(at)rockthevote.com |
