For the Media: Young Voter Myths and Facts

Given recent media interest in young voters, particularly as the primaries approach, Rock the Vote created a new factsheet, Young Voter Myths and Facts (PDF), as a quick and easy resource outlining key facts about the youth vote. Also included is the latest young voter primary polling, including updates from Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and nationwide polls.

The new factsheet is also a great resource for those working in youth politics, campaigns interested in mobilizing young voters, and others.

You can download the full document, including charts and polling, here.

Excerpts below:

Myth – Every election year, reporters and organizations hype the youth vote as the next big thing, but come Election Day, young voters fail to materialize at the polls.

Fact – It’s true that there was a lot of talk about young voters in both 2004 and 2006 – but for very good reason. After a nearly continuous downward turnout trend since 1972, turnout among 18-29 year olds was up significantly in 2004 and 2006.

• In 2004, 20.1 million 18-29 year olds voted, a 4.3 million jump over 2000. The turnout increase (9% points) among the youngest voters was more than double that of the overall electorate (4% points). (U.S. Census Bureau)

• In 2006, the youth increased by 1.9 million over 2002 levels. Turnout among the youngest voters grew by 3% points over 2002, twice the turnout increase (1.7% points) of older voters. (U.S. Census Bureau)

In fact, in 2004 the turnout rate of 18-29 year olds was higher than all but one year (1992) since 18-20 year olds got voting rights in 1972.

Myth – Even if turnout went up in 2004, it’s probably just a blip in the radar screen like 1992.

Fact – While we can’t predict the future, there are a number of indicators that 2004 was the beginning of a trend.

• 2006: Turnout rose again in the 2006 elections – the first increase in 18-29 year old turnout in a midterm election in 24 years – and also the first in 24 years to sustain over two elections. (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Engagement: Reams of research on today’s youth vote shows that they are paying more attention to politics and elections than they were before the 2004 elections. (See chart for one example)

• Mobilization: Higher youth turnout in 2004 and 2006 was in part the result of increased outreach efforts from nonpartisan groups and campaigns, which will continue in 2008.
• In 2004, nonpartisan groups invested $40 million in registering and turning out young voters. In 2006, these groups again invested millions in mobilization efforts.
• Research proves that outreach increases turnout – if campaigns work the youth vote, it works. Phones calls and door-knocks increase turnout by 5-10 points, and more than 80% of youth who get registered end up going to the polls.

Myth – The youth vote can’t make much of a difference in elections.

Fact – The youth vote can make – and has made –the difference in close elections. Their sheer size, combined with growing rates of voter turnout makes them a politically powerful voting bloc.

• In 2004, the size of the 18-29 year old electorate (20.1 million voters) rivaled that of the much-coveted senior vote (22.3 million voters over 65). (U.S. Census Bureau)

• By 2008, there will be 44 million 18-29 year olds eligible to vote – one-fifth of the voting eligible population.

Fact – In 2006, young voters made the difference in races where campaigns ran youth outreach efforts. When campaigns and candidates work the youth vote, it works.

• Montana: Tester defeated Burns by 3,562 votes; 18-29 turnout was up by 39,106 votes over 2002.
• Virginia: Webb defeated Allen by 9,329 votes; 18-29 turnout was up by 110,453 votes over 2002.
• Missouri: McCaskill defeated Talent by 48,314 votes, 18-29 turnout was up by 108,269 votes.
• CT-02: Joe Courtney won by 83 votes; turnout at the UConn polling place was up nearly 10x that.

Myth – In 2004, young voters didn’t turn out to the Iowa caucuses and are the reason Howard Dean didn’t win.

Fact – In 2004, 17-29 year olds quadrupled their Iowa caucus turnout compared to 2000, and made up 17% of all caucus-goers (more than the 15% 30-44 year olds made up).

As for vote choice, the plurality (35%) of 17-29 year olds voted for John Kerry, the winner, while 25% voted for Dean and 20% for John Edwards. (Sources: Iowa caucus entrance poll, http://www.cnn.com, and CIRCLE at the University of Maryland, www.civicyouth.org)

Myth – Young voters are flocking to [fill in the blank] candidate. If he/she loses in Iowa, or New Hampshire or South Carolina, it’ll be because young adults didn’t vote.

Fact – No one has the youth vote sewn up, particularly in the wide-open primary races. Young voters aren’t a monolithic bloc – like all voters, they split their votes between candidates, make up their minds based on a variety of factors, are different state-by-state, and will vote if or when that candidate asks for their vote.

See the full report for polling on young voter ballot choice in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and nationwide.

Get Young Voter Myths and Facts here, and for more information, please visit our library of research, polling, facts and figures on young people at www.rockthevote.com/research.

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kat Bio: Email the author at: blog(at)rockthevote.com

This entry was posted on Tuesday, December 4th, 2007 at 2:11 pm and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.