A new poll from the Pew Center shows support for private accounts among young people has plummeted recently. (Ahem…ahem…)
To quote the Pew Center, “In particular, people under age 30 who have heard a lot about the proposal are more than twice as likely as their less engaged peers to oppose the idea (45% vs.19%).”
So: the more young people hear about privatization, the less they like it. Hmm…sounds familiar! Oh, let’s see: When young people learn about the cuts, debt and risk that comes with private accounts—and the pro-privatization politicians can’t hide it forever—they’re like, don’t even try it!
It is a recipe for a political backlash. Long assumed as the only demographic that would support private accounts, when young people turn on them, its ovah.
Now, “support for private accounts” is a finicky number you have to watch carefully, since the point is not so much private accounts as much as what it takes to get them: cuts, debt, and risk. But the big point here is that the young people who are more educated and more engaged—a.k.a., the cool kids, the influencers—are more opposed.
The Associated Press story about the poll is below. The political backlash is forthcoming.
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Interesting data straight from the AARP’s own study of the Chilean Privatization System. The only knock I could find is that all experts agree the system is doing great in the short term, but can it continue its success into the long-term.
The following are clips taken directly from the study:
-
-
In part due to government regulation, variation in return among funds appears to have been relatively narrow, at least during the first ten years. Myers (1992: 51) presents data showing that the 1981-90 average annual real rate of return across funds ranged from 12.5 percent to 14 percent.
-
While warning that averages can be misleading, Myers (1992) notes that average old-age benefits under the new and old systems were comparable in 1990. Mesa-Lago (1994)simply reports that benefits for the initial retirees have been higher. If Codevilla (1993:135), is correct, benefits are, on average, about “40 percent more than [those of] retirees in the state system. . .”, but that only indicates that retirees are better off than they would have been, not that they are well off.
-
Among the virtues of Chile’s new system, according to Scarpaci and Miranda-Radic (1991), are greater accountability than under the old system and, at least to date, the greater yield on investments. Benefits are adjusted for inflation, and workers are guaranteed a minimum benefit. Survivors’ benefits and disability benefits (which are not the subject of this overview) are higher under the new system.
-
The Chilean system is now fully funded and portable, with all the benefits those two features entail. Deteriorating support ratios should be far less cause for concern under this defined contribution system than they were
under the pay-as-you-go system it replaced.
-
Finally, even though the system may now be healthy, its longer term “fiscal soundness,”
as Scarpaci and Miranda-Radic (1991: 40)point out, “remains to be tested.” The ultimate“proof” of the new system’s success won’t be
apparent for many years, when the first workers to have been employed solely under that system reach retirement age. Until then,
the extent to which workers’ annuity accounts will provide them with adequate retirement income–and the extent to which the
government may be required to augment inadequate annuities for large numbers of workers–will remain an unknown. If the optimistic scenarios prevail, and thel arge majority of workers are able to provide for their own retirement in a mature system,
then the government and retirees themselves could end up winners. It is too early to tell.
-
It is well to keep in mind the World Bank’s crucial observation about decentralized mandatory savings schemes such as that in
Chile, namely, that they “will function best in middle- or high-income countries with a population well enough informed to make
intelligent investment decisions” (World Bank 1994: 231, emphasis added). Workers’ ability to make the wisest investment decisions, to say nothing of their interest in keeping abreast of all that they need to in order to make wise
decisions, is questioned in Chile as well as in the United States. Workers under the new Chilean system, aside from the minimum
benefit, are not insured against poor decisions; nor can the system guarantee a particular rate
of return.
Even the AARP can’t spin the facts in it’s own research.
You have to love the following 2 comments: “American workers are too dumb to participate in this type of system”
“that only indicates that
retirees are better off than they would have been, not that they are well off.”
Go read for yourself
http://assets.aarp.org/rgcenter/econ/ib23_chile.pdf
Come on Dream. Fill us in with the spin that even the AARP couldn’t give us. Before you write it, Chile had to get through the transition costs as we will have to. We’re in a better position because we have a few years before the whole system goes belly up. We should be able to manage the costs better with a more gradual transition.
Holla
Thrift Savings Plan.
Look it up.
Realize that all Govt. Employees get it.
Understand that this is the plan for Soc. Sec.
This is the future.
This if for YOUNG PEOPLE.
Get the real info and spread it please.
Realize also that FDR himself recognized that SS was not meant as the sole source of income and himself called for personal accounts soon after implementing the system.
im not sure why people allow organizations such as rock the vote get away with just saying bullsh*t and no one questions it. You talk about the risk involved with private accounts. What the hell? The risk that you might actually get to keep some of your own money? Social Security guarantees that you will lose 15% of every dollar you earn, and sometime 30-40 years from now, you will get back whatevers left after the government has spent most of it on things that you would never spend your own money on. So, there’s your risk! If you don’t want to risk losing your guaranteed 15% loss of money down this black hole we call social security, then by all means go for it! I have found that life is better when i let other people take care fo me, because i am too scared and irresponsible to do so myself. wait, thats not true.
Dream, I bet you weren’t crying and moaning when Clinton proposed similar SS reform. I bet you thought it was a great idea.
Bush picks brains of Clinton, father
By Bill Sammon
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
ABOARD AIR FORCE ONE — President Bush solicited foreign policy advice from former President Bill Clinton at CIA briefings this week and even told Mr. Clinton that he liked his approach to reforming Social Security.
‘It was really a lot of fun, Mr. Bush told reporters yesterday after spending three days with Mr. Clinton and former President George Bush in Rome.
‘These CIA briefings a lot of time prompt policy discussions,’ he added. ‘It’s interesting to get their points of view about their experiences in particular countries.’
The president also praised one of Mr. Clinton’s domestic policies — trying to reform Social Security. Both men have proposed personal savings accounts as part of the solution, an idea that is vociferously opposed by congressional Democrats.
‘I was telling President Clinton I remember watching one of his town hall meetings in Albuquerque, New Mexico, on this very subject,’ Mr. Bush said just hours after bidding farewell to his predecessor at the Rome airport.
‘And I thought it was a very impressive presentation,’ he added. ‘By the way, a lot of the language happens to be pretty close to some of the town hall meetings we’ve had.’
Comparing himself favorably to Mr. Clinton is the latest in a series of recent moves by Mr. Bush to strengthen relations with the man who vanquished his father in 1992. The thaw comes after years in which Mr. Bush talked of the need to ‘restore honor and dignity to the White House’ in the post-Clinton era.
Earlier this year, the president dispatched Mr. Clinton to help his father orchestrate relief efforts for tsunami victims in Asia. This week, Mr. Bush brought his two predecessors to Rome on Air Force One for Pope John Paul II’s funeral.
By pairing Mr. Clinton with his father, Mr. Bush has drawn both predecessors back into the orbit of the White House after years in which they generally stayed away — at least publicly. It also has allowed Mr. Bush to do something he has strenuously avoided since taking office — acknowledging that he sometimes sounds out his father on foreign policy questions.
I wonder what the poll results would be if young voters were asked:
Would you like the choice to participate in a personal savings account program?
What a “Social Waste of Time!” I am astounded at the amount of effort, research and energy that goes into fighting for an outdated system of guaranteed below poverty level incomes! If you whiney, unaccountable, irresponsible crybabies could harness 1/4 of that energy and focus it on creating a system of real financial security, you could give what little S.S. you ‘might’ get to a truly worthwhile cause. Instead, these crumbs your fighting for are going to go towards your Alpo meals and support nothing except your selfish, lazy a**!! And you STILL have the nerve to pay lip service to all the starving, mistreated people of the world and the crimes against them instead of stepping up, Get-Off-Your-A**, and use the rights and privileges you have and take for granted to actually do something about it. God forbid YOU accept responsibility to lead your cause, your family, and in this case your financial security.
If you really did have faith in our government and the systems they created, then you would follow the lead of our presidents and the congressmen & women(current and former) and put your focus into the ever resiliant American Economy. Creating financial security is not some mystery eluding mankind. We do have the most succesful economic system in the written history of the free-world.
You could be out there fighting for ten times the so called “benefits” of S.S. but you would rather go to bat for:
1. A guaranteed loss on your hard earned $$.
2. A system certain to pay most mid-income Americans 1/2 of what they can’t live on now.
3. Depending on someone else to fulfill your responsibilty of financial security, other than YOU.
4. A system measured by a blueprint of our economic inadequacies of the 1930’s & 40’s.
Go ahead, in the meantime, I’m going out here to make sure my family is not part of your “cool kid club” and you can go fight your brains out and get your broken trophy. I think I may also go start a business (since we have that freedom here) where I take scared people’s $$ and go invest it at two to three times the return I give back to them. (As if the banks don’t already have that game down.) And they are still building them.
Either way, you are in one of two categories or heading towards one of two categories on this issue. Dependent on it, or independent of it. I don’t care how many %’s and formulas of whatever blueprint or diagram or equation that you evoke to make you look or sound or feel smart and scream that social security is or isn’t the answer, you are one or the other.
If you don’t like the boat your in, maybe you should sail it on out of here to the socialist or communist country of your choice. Be careful, you will be running in to a ton of people literally dying to come here. Last I heard, people weren’t clamouring to run to Cuba or Mexico. Take your “cool kid club” with you. We don’t need any more excuse makers and lazy a**es like them around anyway.
It is quite humorous to see that Rock the Vote is actually going to sit here and try to cite polls, for the majority of polls have over 50%- and sometimes significantly more than 50%- of people in the sub-30 age group supporting the President’s reform package.
It does not take a fool to engineer polls to get certain results, and the polls that Rock the Vote cites (and has cited in the past) have all been found to be full of holes, and “leading questions” that push certain results. Anyone who is familiar with basic social research knows how polls can be manipulated.
Rock the Vote should, instead of acting like a partisan puppet of any party, be advocating the best possible solution for the youth, the movement it claims to represent. The best possible solution for the youth here, whether Rock the Vote likes it or not, is the President’s plan. Unfortunately, Rock the Vote would rather be a partisan puppet to the AARP and the Democratic Party instead, which is unfortunate for our generation.
Maybe one day, an organization will step up to TRULY represent our needs and values. Until then, this generation unfortunately will have to deal with puppets like Rock the Vote, who make the youth out to be the AARP’s slaves in this entire debate.
Furthermore, it does not come as a surprise that some polls show that some people in our generation are afraid of Social Security reform- look at how much fear mongering partisan puppets like Rock the Vote throw at them every day.
Hitler would have said “All the cool kids hate Jews.”
The SS system is a sham. It is immoral. The government has absolutely no right to be involved. Period. Shame on you for allowing yourself to be brainwashed by socialist anti-intellectualism.
.
Instead of telling young voters what to think and what is cool, why don\’t you listen to us. I use to think rock the vote was a voice for young people. Now I see it as a special interest group trying to push its agenda, or what is cool, on young voters. Shame on you.
Take a look at the outlook for Social Security. Huge surpluses now, and huge deficits in the future when I’m retiring. With private accounts, that becomes a deficit now and surpluses in the future. That is the better deal since you only get a few years of deficits and growing surpluses in the futuree.
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I was searching for Elvis and somehow ended up in your blog, but you know I’m sure I saw him in a car lot yesterday, which is really strange because the last time I saw him was in the supermarket.
No honest really, he was right there in front of me, next to the steaks singing “Love me Tender”.
He said to me (his lip was only slightly curled) “Boy, you need to get yourself a shiny, new lcd tv to go with that blue suede sofa of yours.
But Elvis said I, In the Ghetto nobody has a lcd tv .
Dude I’m All Shook Up said Elvis. I think I’ll have me another cheeseburger.
Then I’m gonna go round and see Michael Jackson and we’re gonna watch that waaaay cool surfing scene in Apocalypse Now on the lcdtv in the back of my Hummer.
And then he just walked out of the supermarket singing. . .
“You give me love and consolation,
You give me strength to carry on “
Strange day or what?
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Every year my son Dylan and I have been building our Halloween animatronic display. This year we added 12 new figures and my wife had been making the clothes etc. but then I clued in that Halloween Costumes were the ideal solution – ya, ok I’m slow but…This year is really cool because we’ve done an HP Lovecraft display that I’m sure he’d appreciate but I’m not so sure he’d approve of this – The Necronomicon – Is it just me or is that just plain goofy ? Anyway, everybody is doing their own Haunted House thing now but hey – it’s fun and if you’ve got kids I really suggest you try it yourself if you haven’t already. It’s a nice change from the usual Christmas Lights routine and a lot of scaaarrry fun. Happy Halloween everybody.
Everyone has days when they are down, worn out, anxiety disorder in child and just not feeling all that happy.
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Even though you know that sadness (anxiety disorder in child) is a part of life, let’s try to make it a small part of life.
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3. Repeat positive affirmations. Things like “I feel good”, “Positive energy flows through my body”, “I see the good in all”.
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Anyone 21 years old or younger is actually expected to get a negative rate of return
on the social security money they put in under the current system. That doesn’t sound too ‘cool’ to me.